Economic

67/100HIGH ↑

US gross national debt reached $38.43 trillion as of January 2026 (~124% of GDP), growing at $8 billion per day. Interest payments now consume nearly one-fifth of all federal revenue — a structural fiscal trap. CBO projects debt will exceed the 1946 wartime peak of 106% by 2036. Banking system unrealized losses remain elevated at $306 billion (Q4 2025). 137 countries are exploring CBDCs; the EU Digital Euro targets 2029 legislation. The US halted retail CBDC development under Trump executive order — but 24 emerging markets face bond maturity cliffs by 2027.

Watch For

US 10-yr Treasury yield >5.5% sustained 30+ days (currently 4.19%)

VIX >45 sustained

G7 bank bail-in announcements

EU Digital Euro mandatory adoption timeline announced

IMF emergency convening — sovereign debt cascade

Active Signals

The US national debt stands at $38.43 trillion — roughly 124% of the entire US economy — and grows by $8 billion every day. Interest payments now consume about 20% of all federal income, creating a situation where the government cannot easily reduce borrowing without causing a financial crisis.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) 2026–2036 forecast projects US public debt will reach 120% of the economy by 2036 — surpassing the previous record of 106% set after World War 2. The annual deficit is tracking at about 6% of GDP with no structural fix in place.

137 countries — representing 98% of the world's economy — are now exploring government-controlled digital currencies (CBDCs). China's digital yuan has processed $986 billion in transactions. The EU's Digital Euro is in preparation with legislation targeted for 2029. The US paused its retail CBDC development by executive order.

Related Scenarios

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S01 · 2026–28

Hyperinflation

42% · CRITICAL

Hyperinflation means prices rising more than 30% per year, which destroys the value of savings. The US debt stands at $38.43 trillion — about 124% of the economy — growing $8 billion per day. Interest payments already consume about 20% of all federal income. The Congressional Budget Office projects the debt will surpass the record set after World War 2 by 2036.

Priority Actions

→Hold physical gold and silver outside the banking system(15–25% net worth)

→Open bank accounts in 2+ countries with different currencies($5K setup)

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S03 · 2027–30

CBDC Mandatory Adoption

48% · HIGH

137 countries — 98% of the world's economy — are exploring government-controlled digital currencies (CBDCs). China's digital yuan has already processed $986 billion in transactions. The EU's Digital Euro is targeting legislation in 2029. The US paused its retail CBDC by executive order — but a financial crisis could accelerate non-US adoption. CBDCs (programmable digital money) can be designed to block transactions, set expiry dates on funds, or enforce spending limits.

Priority Actions

→Move Bitcoin to a hardware wallet — off exchanges now($100–$200 hardware)

→Fund an offshore bank account to its maximum before any restrictions begin(Act now)

Decision Gates

EXECUTE ON TRIGGER — NO DELAY

G4T424 hours

A G7 government announces bank bail-in (using depositor funds to rescue a bank)

Move all cash to physical assets or offshore accounts immediately.

24 hours

G7T372 hours

Overnight bank lending rate (repo rate) above 5% for 3+ consecutive days

Early warning of a potential bank run. Move cash to hard assets now.

72 hours

G8T290 days

Any G7 government announces a mandatory CBDC adoption timeline

Move Bitcoin to self-custody hardware wallet. Fund offshore account to maximum. Hold physical cash.

90 days